NVDA Propels …

and Supports Nasdaq.  This is the interpretation of this author from the action of the TQQQ and SQQQ.  This author is bullish on the SQQQ because of the dichotomy yesterday between the Dow (up over 250) and Nasdaq down almost 50.  The Nasdaq are the growth stocks for the millenials whereas the Dow propelling some stocks that were around during the Great Depression.  This might be positive but is a negative sign because of the anemic jobs report and the layoffs in Silicon Valley.

Britain’s currency heads for its best week …

Britain’s currency heads for its best week in more than seven years versus the euro.

Sterling has climbed against all of its 31 major peers since last Friday. It’s the surprise winner during the week of Donald Trump’s electoral upset in the U.S. that threw markets into turmoil as traders reappraised populist movements and inflation. The pound’s recent surge marks a reversal from last month, when it was the worst performer, trailing behind 150 peers.

Trump Presidency Bullish for Oil, Gas and Grains

While there are some specifics about President-elect Donald Trump‘s energy policy to be worked out, overall his presidency is “very bullish long term for oil and gas,” Warwick Energy CEO Kate Richard told CNBC on Thursday.

“For natural gas: winter. And for crude: OPEC and the OPEC meeting at the end of November. And both of those are bullish for the commodities which are probably bullish for the equities.”

Possible Winter Storm on track for Pacific NW and Plains.

What you need to know for markets today (Could Bernie Sanders …)

 

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Consider my performance:

EA Puts:

  • $75 3/17/17 recommended purchased puts at $3.35, now bid $4.40. – Gain of 31.34%
  • $67.50 3/17/17 recommended purchased at $1.90, now bid $2.10 – Gain of 10.53%
  • $67.50 3/17/17 recommended purchased at $1.51, now bid $2.10 – Gain of 39.07%

ATVI Puts:

  • $42 2/17/17 puts recommended purchased at $2.22, now bid $4.25 – Gain of 91.44%
  • $41 2/17/17 puts recommended purchased at $1.95, now bid $3.60 – Gain of 84.62%

The Last Great Black Friday

Since orders have already been placed and inventories stocked, this could be the Last Great Black Friday for consumer electronics.

In an interview with The New York Times’ editorial board, Trump said he would consider placing a 45% tax on Chinese goods. Such a move could prove especially damaging for consumer technology companies such as Apple (AAPL), which produces the vast majority of its products in China. Indeed, most technology companies rely on Chinese manufacturing or Chinese parts.

“Some products will probably go up by 45%, but most products will not, because some of that profit will be absorbed by the producers,” Rogowsky said, adding that assemblers in China could offset some of the increased costs.

That said, such action would have far-reaching global consequences. The consumer technology industry is, after all, a worldwide market. Raising tariffs on China, then, could lead to tax spikes in companies as far away as Europe, through.

“Everything would rise for consumers and they would consume less. But that filters back through the whole supply chain. So American businesses, Korean businesses, Japanese businesses and German businesses would feel this,” Rogowsky explained.

“It’s easy to go out and threaten to do something about it,” Clementi said. “But it’s very, very difficult to go out and actually do something about it.”

Of course, presidential candidates regularly bash China and Japan over trade, Rogowsky said.

Still, he added, “The magnitude of what he expects to do, the large tariff increases, which would be almost prohibitive … seems almost remarkably unlikely.”

For Speculative Accounts Only:  A huge bet on the fulfillment of this odyssey is the trading activity of 743 contracts in the TGT $67.50 4/21/17 puts selling for $2.95 (see negative action in AMZN).

For more risk seeking accounts, TGT $62.50 4/21/17 puts selling for $1.59.

For Speculative Accounts Only, a more surgical strike on consumer electronics is BBY 3/17/17 $33.00 puts selling for $1.34.  For more risk seeking accounts, the BBY $32.00 3/17/17 puts are selling for $1.08.  The puts with the 4rd most open interest are the BBY $30.00 3/17/17 selling for $0.49.

Bullish and Bearish Predictions Confirmed

Timing for CHK prediction was, admittedly off, however the dollar will weaken in federal spending environment and big oil will recover on higher oil prices.

CHK

5.76+0.45 (+8.47%)

At close: 4:00 PM EST
Trump’s growth prediction of 3-4% matters whether it’s debt sourced or organic.  Remember, Paul Volcker is in the Fed administration and may put the brakes on Fed spending growth.
EA (down 2.52%) and ATVI (down 2.10%) bearish predictions confirmed today (see Put purchases), despite the Nasdaq market being up 1.11%, and this author thinks they will slide further into the holidays, especially by concerns of holiday weakness by the biggest discounter, AMZN, down 2.01% which also did not participate in the rally, however WMT (up 1.88%) and TGT (up 2.62%) bucked the AMZN trend.  More worrisome is capital goods spending as GM lays off 2000 employees in the 3rd shift which will dampen holiday spending if GM is not isolated in capital goods spending.