The Last Great Black Friday

Since orders have already been placed and inventories stocked, this could be the Last Great Black Friday for consumer electronics.

In an interview with The New York Times’ editorial board, Trump said he would consider placing a 45% tax on Chinese goods. Such a move could prove especially damaging for consumer technology companies such as Apple (AAPL), which produces the vast majority of its products in China. Indeed, most technology companies rely on Chinese manufacturing or Chinese parts.

“Some products will probably go up by 45%, but most products will not, because some of that profit will be absorbed by the producers,” Rogowsky said, adding that assemblers in China could offset some of the increased costs.

That said, such action would have far-reaching global consequences. The consumer technology industry is, after all, a worldwide market. Raising tariffs on China, then, could lead to tax spikes in companies as far away as Europe, through.

“Everything would rise for consumers and they would consume less. But that filters back through the whole supply chain. So American businesses, Korean businesses, Japanese businesses and German businesses would feel this,” Rogowsky explained.

“It’s easy to go out and threaten to do something about it,” Clementi said. “But it’s very, very difficult to go out and actually do something about it.”

Of course, presidential candidates regularly bash China and Japan over trade, Rogowsky said.

Still, he added, “The magnitude of what he expects to do, the large tariff increases, which would be almost prohibitive … seems almost remarkably unlikely.”

For Speculative Accounts Only:  A huge bet on the fulfillment of this odyssey is the trading activity of 743 contracts in the TGT $67.50 4/21/17 puts selling for $2.95 (see negative action in AMZN).

For more risk seeking accounts, TGT $62.50 4/21/17 puts selling for $1.59.

For Speculative Accounts Only, a more surgical strike on consumer electronics is BBY 3/17/17 $33.00 puts selling for $1.34.  For more risk seeking accounts, the BBY $32.00 3/17/17 puts are selling for $1.08.  The puts with the 4rd most open interest are the BBY $30.00 3/17/17 selling for $0.49.

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